13th Representative District Election Preview
District Map (PDF)
Registration Breakdown (As of 5/1/2006)
Democrat: 6,482
Republican: 2,486
Other: 3,280 (Source)
Candidates
Democrats:
Edward F. Doyle, Jr.
John L. ("Larry") Mitchell, Jr.
Republican:
John Jaremchuk
(I wasn't able to find website links for the Democratic candidates. I'll update the post with them if someone can provide them.)
Financial Data
No finance reports are available online for the candidates.
Past Election Results
2004: 36.6% GOP
2002: 40.2% GOP
(Source)
(Results based on contested races that include the entire district and only includes votes for the two major parties.)
Brief Candidate Bios
Larry Mitchell is a Sergeant with the New Castle County Police Department and has been very active in the state FOP, serving as Legislative Chairman where he successfully promoted legislation to improve officers' pension plans and tuition assistance for active officers. He's been endorsed by a host of Democrats, including retiring Representative John Van Sant, Senator Patty Blevins and County Councilman Joe Reda, all of whom represent the area currently.
I can't find anything online about Edward Doyle, but he faces a tough time in the primary against the strongly supported Mitchell.
Former Elsmere Mayor, Treasurer and current Councilman John Jaremchuk is running as the Republican candidate for State Representative. He's made the most news recently for his proposed legislation that would have fined anyone in Elsmere who could not produce proof of US residency with 72 hours or who housed or employed illegal aliens.
Analysis
We can likely chalk up the Democratic primary as a win for Mitchell. His strong ties to the FOP provide him with a large core of dedicated and hardworking volunteers. (I can speak from experience on that one; the FOP provided a great deal of work for a campaign I worked on.) He'll also have the support of the Democratic party regulars which is often decisive in a primary campaign, as that will give him the advantage of the party organization, lists, money, volunteers, etc. Expected Democratic Primary Winner: Mitchell
Jaremchuk enters the race with high name identification due to his stance on illegal immigration. This is a mixed bag, though as the publicity surrounding his legislation brought a good deal of scorn down upon him and has set a lot of people against him. He also faces a district that's over one-eighth Hispanic (based of 2002 numbers, no online source) and outright majority Democrat. Given his party affiliation and stance on the issue of illegal immigration, those numbers don't bode well for his candidacy. Barring a major turn of events, this seat will likely stay Democratic. Expected General Election Winner: Mitchell
Registration Breakdown (As of 5/1/2006)
Democrat: 6,482
Republican: 2,486
Other: 3,280 (Source)
Candidates
Democrats:
Edward F. Doyle, Jr.
John L. ("Larry") Mitchell, Jr.
Republican:
John Jaremchuk
(I wasn't able to find website links for the Democratic candidates. I'll update the post with them if someone can provide them.)
Financial Data
No finance reports are available online for the candidates.
Past Election Results
2004: 36.6% GOP
2002: 40.2% GOP
(Source)
(Results based on contested races that include the entire district and only includes votes for the two major parties.)
Brief Candidate Bios
Larry Mitchell is a Sergeant with the New Castle County Police Department and has been very active in the state FOP, serving as Legislative Chairman where he successfully promoted legislation to improve officers' pension plans and tuition assistance for active officers. He's been endorsed by a host of Democrats, including retiring Representative John Van Sant, Senator Patty Blevins and County Councilman Joe Reda, all of whom represent the area currently.
I can't find anything online about Edward Doyle, but he faces a tough time in the primary against the strongly supported Mitchell.
Former Elsmere Mayor, Treasurer and current Councilman John Jaremchuk is running as the Republican candidate for State Representative. He's made the most news recently for his proposed legislation that would have fined anyone in Elsmere who could not produce proof of US residency with 72 hours or who housed or employed illegal aliens.
Analysis
We can likely chalk up the Democratic primary as a win for Mitchell. His strong ties to the FOP provide him with a large core of dedicated and hardworking volunteers. (I can speak from experience on that one; the FOP provided a great deal of work for a campaign I worked on.) He'll also have the support of the Democratic party regulars which is often decisive in a primary campaign, as that will give him the advantage of the party organization, lists, money, volunteers, etc. Expected Democratic Primary Winner: Mitchell
Jaremchuk enters the race with high name identification due to his stance on illegal immigration. This is a mixed bag, though as the publicity surrounding his legislation brought a good deal of scorn down upon him and has set a lot of people against him. He also faces a district that's over one-eighth Hispanic (based of 2002 numbers, no online source) and outright majority Democrat. Given his party affiliation and stance on the issue of illegal immigration, those numbers don't bode well for his candidacy. Barring a major turn of events, this seat will likely stay Democratic. Expected General Election Winner: Mitchell
posted by Paul Smith Jr. at 8:06 PM
9 Comments:
Paul, I think this is a very well done piece and I hope that you will continue to post these capsules for other races in the future. For those of us who are interested but don't have the time to spend on researching each race, this is helpful information. Thanks - Tom
I hate to say this, but hopefully Election Day will prove your analysis wrong. Keep in mind that Bill Lee won approximately 43% of the 2004 vote from this district and I don’t remember him campaigning particularly hard in this area. Also, is that one eighth Latino population from a census or are they registered voters? An extremely large portion of the Latino community in this district is made up of illegal immigrants (as evidenced by their PA tags) and therefore they will not be going to the polls in November (to vote, anyway).
I think that this districts votes issues and people, not strictly along party lines. I (a Republican) received 49% of the vote in my Mayoral election. I lost by a mere 61 votes. Also, don't forget that John Jaremchuk has bee elected to Elsmere's Town Council for 8 terms (almost 16 years). Other feathers in his cap include starting up Drug Court, Mental Health court and the DE Mediation program.
I have to agree with Ms. Olga. Plus, I believe that people are much smarter these days than to vote the party line anymore....that may have been true years ago, but I believe most people today look at the person, not the party. Plus, do we really need another cop in the Legislature? (Another county cop in political office?) One who is endorsed by the good-ole-boy network to continue the same old nonsense? Whose interest will he represent? It is apparent where his loyalties are. Or, do we want someone who has already proven to represent the concerns of the people by having the courage to bring to light the serious quality of life issues in the Elsmere-Richardson Park areas pertaining to Illegal Immigrants? Jaremchuk has my vote.
Folks, that's Paul's head talking, not his heart. I'm sure he would love to see Jaremchuk pull it off, as we all would. But the odds are long for any Republican candidate when the registration edge is more than 2-to-1 and the oppponent is part of the most powerful union in the state.
But we can hope.
Amy, when I was pre-drafting this article in my head before setting down "to paper" so to speak, I was intending to be much more favorable to Mr. Jaremchuk's chances. On the past few Election Days (including Primaries), I've worked as an Inspector for the Department of Elections for one of the election districts in the 13th Rep. (Meaning I was in charge of the polling place for that district. I forget which one.) One thing I noticed when looking at those results compared to the registration of those who voted was a disproportionate Republican vote total. (Many more GOP votes than I would have expected looking at the party turnout.)
So, I was expecting to find a decent chance for Jaremchuk to pull off a win. But once I went looking at the results of the entire district, I just can't support that conclusion.
In the post, I did note Jaremchuk's service to the Town of Elsmere, saying that it gave him an advantage. But at a rough guess, Elsmere is only about half the entire district and given his "notoriety," I don't see him picking up enough support outside Elsmere.
I also think it's one thing to vote for someone in a non-partisan election but then another to formally vote for a Republican, even if you had previously voted for him in said non-partisan election.
In response to anonymous' comments at 5:05 pm, I would hope so, but I don't believe that to be the case. Most of my political experience has been in the City of Wilmington and I can't tell you the number of times I've been told things like "He seems like a nice guy, but he's a Republican." There's a real resistance to crossing over to vote for Republicans by Democrats. I don't understand it, but it's a fact of life. My two favorites: "I'd like to help, but people might think I'm no longer a Democrat." "I'd like to vote for him, but what about Newt Gingrich?" (As though Newt had anything to do with the City of Wilmington.) Party affiliation still means a lot. I wish more people did vote for the man not the party, but sadly, it's not the case.
Plus, as DelaThought points out, the FOP is influential. People tend to like cops since they keep us safe.
hmmm why do illegals have Pa tags?
PA does not require people to show proof of residency, and their laws regarding auto insurance are not as strict as Delaware. Plus there are a lot of "mom and pop" operations in PA that do inspections (rather than a state motor vehicle like we have)so it is easier to obtain vehicle registrations - and obtain them fraudulently. Recently though, I heard that elected officials in New Jersey were appealing to the PA officials to toughen up their vehicle registration requirements because of the high numbers of auto accidents and hit and runs involving illegals with PA tagged cars in their state. Supposedly, as of January 2006, it is now required to show proof of residency in PA to register a vehicle - however, I have not heard for sure if that is being done now.....perhaps someone out there may have additional info??? I also have heard from a Wilmington official that many cars abandoned on the streets in Wilmington that they recover with PA tags are actually fake tags placed on stolen vehicles.
Here the analysis part is nice.Especially strong ties to the FOP provide him with a large core of dedicated and hardworking volunteers.He also have the support of the Democratic party regulars which is often decisive in a primary campaign, as that will give him the advantage of the party organization, lists, money, volunteers, etc. Expected
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blowsy
Delaware Drug Treatment
Occasionally, media outlets incorrectly label Lyndon LaRouche as a Libertarian in articles about the controversy he generates.[45] Mistakes such as this are problematic for any political party, but have a heavier impact on a smaller party which generally gets less press coverage.
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frankline
Delaware Alcohol Addiction Treatment
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